Monday, June 27, 2016

By Ken Knight, MBA

Brexit: What's up with that?

Before we get into Brexit and the EU (European Union) I want to reinforce a few points that I have made in earlier blogs.  First of all, remember, the "mood" of society determines the news, not the other way around. As we continue to enter deeper into a period of negative mood, we will continue to see negative news events including acts of terrorism, xenophobia, deterioration of the economy, and isolationism (building of walls and fences)(*see below). 

As for Brexit, unless you have been Rip Van Winkle for the last month, Great Britain has voted to break away from the EU.  Br-Exit.  Get it?  This is what happens during a bear market.  Alliances break down.  But before that, let's go back to the beginning of the EU.  After many years negotiating after the second world war, 6 countries in Europe decided in 1979 to form an alliance and strengthen Europe thinking the whole is greater than the sum of its parts called synergy.  Its members continued to grow thinking that belonging would help each member's economy, eliminating tariffs between countries and except for Great Britain,  sharing a currency known as the Euro.  This culminated in the establishment in 1993 of the EU. All this was fine during the great bull market and the peak of positive social mood of the 1990's until things started falling apart (a turn of sentimentality).  In 2009, the EU had to start bailing out first Iceland, then Greece, Ireland, Cypress and Portugal.  Their economies were suffering and they could not pay back loans made to them to keep them afloat.  For a more detailed scenario you can read all about it in Wiki.  As mood deteriorated, the citizens of countries doing "relatively" better like Great Britain and Germany, resented having to bail out these other countries with THEIR money.  Also, recently the economies of all the countries started to deteriorate again and the people of England mostly said "That's all I can stands, I can't stands no more!" (Popeye).  Other countries such as France (Frexit!), the Netherlands, and Italy to name some who are hearing shouts from their citizens to leave the EU.  

 Included in a negative mood is xenophobia, an unreasonable fear or hatred of foreigners or strangers or of that which is foreign or strange.   That was a big selling point for Brexit.  They didn't want the flooding in or more immigrants taking away jobs from their own.  

Remember the Brexit decision and others to follow are based on deep down emotional unconscious feelings and are caused by herd mentality.  The ramifications are just setting in now by the voters.  Their Pound has dropped, their stock market has lost billions.  They kinda shot themselves in the foot (**see below).  There is also buyer's remorse setting in: "what have we done?" and requesting another referendum.  This is where the conscious catches up to the subconscious.  

So based on the above, where does this leave us?  We have our own problems.  I've tried to stay as apolitical as possible but we have kind of the same situation in our own back yard.  The Republican nominee is on the far right and the Democratic nominee has been pushed further to the left.  The contest seems to be neck and neck.  This is NOT your typical presidential race.  There is an unprecedented deep divide between factions.  This has also been seen in the Senate even causing the first "sit-in" in the House of Representatives!  

But as the song goes, "You ain't seen nothin' yet"(Bachman Turner Overdrive).  Hold on for quite a ride in the next few years.  
Stay happy and stay safe.  This too shall end. 

I've been asked by a number of people what to do about IRA's and 401k's.  We'll discuss those items next.
Best regards,

Ken Knight

*p.s. After I wrote this, the clash between the white supremacist group and protesters came on the news! (Yahoo)

**p.p.s. After I wrote this, I saw this on Facebook...Swear to God!









 

No comments:

Post a Comment