The Bear Market Blog

By Ken Knight, MBA

Many of you are scratching your heads and saying "how could this be?"  How could someone like Donald Trump be elected as POTUS?  You need to go back and re-read my first blog.  My contention is that, during a Bear Market, negative feelings are stronger in society, rebelling against the status quo.  Feelings of anger, insecurity, frustration, rejection, protectionism, antagonism, restriction, helplessness, radicalism, uncertainty, depression, unhappiness, fear, and suspicion are all the words the majority are feeling during this downturn in mood.  Donald Trump and his advisors knew just what words to use to bring those feelings to the surface.  He has labeled himself as a "Populist" , that is, "a political ideology that holds that virtuous citizens are mistreated by a small circle of elites, who can be overthrown if the people recognize the danger and work together. Populism depicts elites as trampling on the rights, values, and voice of the legitimate people." (Wiki).  A good article that helps explain this was in the New York Times:  "Trump’s Victory and the Rise of White Populism"  It goes on to explain that the last number of years have been tumultuous for the majority of Americans, the white Anglo-Saxon Protestants (WASP's).  This includes gay rights, civil rights, immigration, and loss of decent paying jobs for blue collar workers that have been forced upon them.  The article says "When they are scared, they seek out strongman leaders and support harsh, punitive policies against immigrants and other outsiders".  That fits Donald Trump to a tee.  
He is seen as an authoritarian in every way.  He will "fix things", "bring high paying jobs back", and "protect us from the outsiders".  Obviously the majority (although small as it was a close race) of Americans who voted hope he can do all he says.  This of course remains to be seen.  

In the meantime, as a college professor once said many years ago: What does all this mean in the infinite scheme of things?"  How will this affect you and me?  Whenever rights are given to a group, another group loses theirs.  As the bear market progresses,we will continue to see these changes as the pendulum swings to the right.  Both good and bad can come out of all this.  We've seen bad authoritarians (Nazi Germany's Hitler) and good ones (President Franklin Roosevelt).  As we have also seen, the pendulum will swing back to better times.  In the meantime, I have counseled my children who find this all devastating, that if you have your health, some wealth, friends, and family, nothing really has changed.

So hopefully this period won't affect us too, too much.  It reminds me of a story:  In the opening scene of Fiddler on the Roof, the rabbi's son asks: “Is there a proper blessing for the tsar?” The rabbi responds: “A blessing for the tsar?” He ponders awhile, then pronounces: “Of course . . . May God bless and keep the tsar . . . far away from us!” (YouTube)  Hopefully any changes Trump and his cohorts make will not affect our lives negatively!  We'll see.....

Best regards,
Ken Knight