By Ken Knight, MBA
In my previous blog, I discussed the implications that social mood has over social trends and activities. Let's discuss some more:
Marijuana:
The most common reason for being arrested in the United States today is for drug possession (Robert Folsom). The average number of arrests per day in the U.S. is 1700! This does not include drug selling which is categorized differently by FBI statistics. The increase of usage of marijuana now stands at 13% of Americans! And this has doubled in the last 3 years!
If we go back in history, we find that prohibitions occur during bull markets and are repealed in bear markets. The prohibition of alcohol occurred in 1919 (the 18th amendment). This was during one of the biggest bull markets in history at that time. The repeal of prohibition occurred in 1932 after a dismal failure of enforcement. Social pressure brought on both movements depending on the current social mood. These changes occurred from "the ground up", in other words, social pressure on the government to make these changes occurred.
Marijuana (mj) is in the same boat. The social pressure surrounding the ban on marijuana came during bull markets and we are seeing the opposite during this momentous bear market. Again the changes in law have occurred due to social pressure from the citizenry. Ironically, the recent "bear market bounce" has caused the federal government to deny any changes in the categorization of mj from a class three drug to a lesser one. My take on the increased use of mj and the decriminalization or legalization of usage is that this is a "feel good" drug that is utilized during periods of negative mood, just as alcohol was (and is) desired by society. A number of states have referendums to legalize the recreational and medical use of mj and I expect to see this trend increase in the future.
Number of births.
Interestingly, when society is in a slump, sex (and therefore procreation) take a back seat. In an economic slump, you are more worried about putting food on the table and a roof over your head. Kinda puts a dent in the libido. Here's a chart of births and the stock market (Socionomics):
Disease epidemics.
There is a direct correlation between the downturn in the stock market (the economy) and societal diseases.(Exploring Socionomic Causality of Social Health and Epidemics)
Let's name a few:
Cholera:
Ebola Epidemic:
A six year decline in Western Africa’s regional benchmark stock index preceded the eruption of an Ebola epidemic in 2014. The epidemic has killed over 11,000 people in West Africa.
Zika Virus:
Finally, after a 5 year decline in the Brazilian Stock Market, we now see the Zika virus becoming the latest epidemic outbreak.
I just read that in the next 3 years, 25% of the inhabitants of Puerto Rico will have the Zika Virus!
What conclusions can we make of this? First of all, when there is a negative societal mood, there is more poverty and a decrease in public health resources available. Alos, a whole lot of stress is put upon us as a whole. Increased stress puts stress on our immune system decreasing our ability to fight infection. There is also an increased amount of poverty (as in Rio Dejunero) and, as we are seeing in the reaction of our own government, there are a decreased amount of resources made available to put towards public health to fight an epidemic.
As to recommendations, as society enters a period of heightened stress, we as individuals can try and protect ourselves by understanding what is happening and not to "stress out" to maintain a strong immune system (Alan Hall). Remain clear of areas where there is high risk. As for using alcohol and drugs to help with mood, I leave that to your own discretion! Mediation and surrounding yourself with positive people will help even better.
We'll talk of other ramifications of society's mood in future blogs.
Until then.
Best regards,
Ken Knight
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