No doubt you are hearing many news stories that reinforce my assertion that, long term, we are mostly in a "bad mood" swing . As nothing goes straight up or straight down, we are in a "bear market bounce". It is interesting and educational to look at how we are influenced on so many levels because of this principle. We are able to look back and possibly look forward to social trends that influence our tastes in fashions, what music we like, and what represents a good movie we'd like to watch, to name a few I will be discussing.
Let's look at some:
Fashions:
Have you ever heard of the "Hemline Index"? Back in the 1920s, the economist George Taylor conceived the hemline index that says the skirt hemline is correlated with the economy (and thus stock market prices). "In times of decline, the hemline moves towards the floor (decreases), and when the economy is booming, skirts get shorter..."(The Big Picture). If we go back in history we see that this is pretty much substantiated.
1920's
1930's Depression:
1940s War Style Joan Fontaine and Olivia De Havilland –
1950's Starting to come up!
Wow!
1970's
Kind of a mixed bag. Confusing fashion like the period.
2000's again confusing.
Okay. How about music.
I'll give you the music and you tell me the mood:
"The Charleston" 1927
"Stormy Weather" by Ethel Waters 1933
"She loves You" Beatles 1964
"No More Mr. Nice Guy" Alice Cooper 1973
"Wild Side" Mötley Crüe 1980
"Like a Prayer" - Madonna 1990
"All I want to do (Is Have Some Fun)" Cheryl Crow 1995
My research for our current time period is all over the place, from "Toxicity" System of Down (Nu Metal) 2005
to
"Me Too" Meghan Trainer (Nu Bubble Gum?) 2012
Get it?
Okay next:
Movies:There is a mixture of all types of movies during time periods. But mix, frequency and popularity are mainly influenced by mood:1931 - 1933
The Mummy
Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde
Frankenstein
Dracula
King Kong
1960's
Halloween
Night of the Living Dead
Texas Chainsaw Massacre
Horror movies during bull markets are derivative, comical, hokey, and silly.
1948:
Abbott and Costello meet Frankenstein.
Heroism, adventure family fare and fantasy are mainstays of a bull market. In 1937, Disney released Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs, during a roaring bull market.
1960's bear market? No Disney movies!
During the 1970's bear market, The Texas Chainsaw Massacre was made along with The Exorcist, The Omen, and Halloween.
In the 1980's Disney produced The Little Mermaid, Beauty and the Beast, Honey I shrunk the kids, among others.
The 1990's continued the upbeat theme with The Lion King, Aladdin, and of course, Toy Story!
As we approach the late 2000's into 2010's, movies have gotten darker:
Shutter Island, Pacific Rim, Zombie Diaries, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter (really!), The Cabin in the Woods, and Sinister. Even comebacks of previous bear markets make a return: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes and Jurassic World made their day-view.
Lately we've had a mixed bag of movies. I believe this is due to the "bear market bounce" we are experiencing that has a somewhat positive mood with undercurrents of negative mood:
Negative:
The Revenant
The Hunger Games - Mockingjay
Terminator Genisys
But on the Positive side:
The Good Dinosaur
Minions
Ted 2
I expect that as we continue to change our mood swing lower after the bounce is done, the number of dark movies will far outweigh the happy ones!
As I have mentioned, there are many aspects of society's trends based on mood swings. Here's some things to think about until next time.
What do you suppose happens in bull and bear markets?
The design (shape) of automobiles.
Legalization of marijuana.
Baseball and basketball ticket sales.
Pro wrestling attendance statistics.
Number of births.
Number of Nuclear explosions.
Fitness and health
Religious participation.
Disease epidemics.
I'll review these in a later blog. Again, fascinating stuff!
Until next time.
Best regards,
Ken Knight
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